Qualification · Qualification 44
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
121.49 – 24.49
77%23%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
64 – 104
Prediction missed · off by 68.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 252.8 ±12.8
Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 27.76Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 70.1Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 78.4Event APEX 23.63Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 232.9 ±12.8
Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 1.74Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 21.56Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 1.19Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8700, 93, 4054
62
/ 100 compatProjected
121.5 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 8700, 93, 4054
Auto
23.6 20%
Teleop
59.5 50%
Endgame
35.3 30%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 31%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6643, 171, 8802
9
/ 100 compatProjected
24.5 pts
~0.9 RP (district)
Teams: 6643, 171, 8802
Auto
-2.7 0%
Teleop
5.4 27%
Endgame
17.2 86%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 31%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 0.89
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score121.5pts
Blue projected score24.5pts
Red win probability77%
Event bonus sample182alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 31%, blue 39%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 97
- Score range
- 2–143
- Upset likelihood
- 23%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
252.8Season APEX232.9
23.6Auto-2.7
59.5Teleop5.4
35.3Endgame17.2
65Consistency58
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 17 | 20 |
| teleop | 3 | 59 |
| endgame | 39 | 25 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 64 | 104 |
Result
Final score
64 – 104
Prediction missed · off by 68.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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