Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

35.29 – 168.45

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 47.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 340.5 ±10.5

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 32.44Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5903ThorBots

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 9.7Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX -6.85Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 240.5 ±11.7

6421WarriorBots

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 74.74Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9425Intra Milwaukee

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 23.06Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 70.65Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 706, 5903, 10553

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 706, 5903, 10553

Auto

16.5 53%

Teleop

13.7 44%

Endgame

1.0 3%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6421, 9425, 10264

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6421, 9425, 10264

Auto

9.7 6%

Teleop

87.1 54%

Endgame

64.4 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.7 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score35.3pts

Blue projected score168.5pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -133.2
Score range: 13–190
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 240 vs event baseline 121.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

340.5Season APEX240.5

16.5Auto9.7

13.7Teleop87.1

1Endgame64.4

35Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	20
teleop	38	74
endgame	43	45
foul	0	0
total	101	139

Result

Final score

101 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 47.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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