Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

120.97 – 106.74

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

92 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 33.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 241.3 ±11.6

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 32.2Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1091Oriole Assault

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 40.26Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5148New Berlin Blitz

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 48.51Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 352.2 ±12.4

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX -15.06Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11258Honey Badgers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 27.88Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 93.92Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8744, 1091, 5148

/ 100 compat

Projected

121 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8744, 1091, 5148

Auto

14.7 13%

Teleop

53.8 48%

Endgame

44.1 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5096, 11258, 2194

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5096, 11258, 2194

Auto

44.8 41%

Teleop

49.4 45%

Endgame

15.9 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score121pts

Blue projected score106.7pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.2
Score range: 85–143
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 161 vs event baseline 122.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

241.3Season APEX352.2

14.7Auto44.8

53.8Teleop49.4

44.1Endgame15.9

45Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	33
teleop	46	20
endgame	29	16
foul	0	0
total	92	69

Result

Final score

92 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 33.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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