Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.01 – 209.27

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

25 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 186.9 ±12.7

5148New Berlin Blitz

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 41.7Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5903ThorBots

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 22.52Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11139Blackhawk Robotics #11139

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 5.79Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.1 ±9.8

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 34.48Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 96.64Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6421WarriorBots

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 78.15Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5148, 5903, 11139

/ 100 compat

Projected

70 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5148, 5903, 11139

Auto

13.8 21%

Teleop

27.6 42%

Endgame

25.0 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10909, 3197, 6421

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10909, 3197, 6421

Auto

30.5 15%

Teleop

117.0 57%

Endgame

57.8 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.66 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70pts

Blue projected score209.3pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -139.3
Score range: 45–234
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 138.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

186.9Season APEX401.1

13.8Auto30.5

27.6Teleop117

25Endgame57.8

0Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	15
teleop	11	122
endgame	3	64
foul	5	0
total	25	201

Result

Final score

25 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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