Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

201.68 – 47.3

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

254 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.4 ±11.2

11258Honey Badgers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 19.24Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 68.14Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 114.3Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 176.3 ±12.7

5903ThorBots

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 6.29Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9760Cristo Rey Jesuit Trailblazers

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 32.6Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3381Droid Rage

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 8.41Rank 38Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11258, 6223, 1259

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11258, 6223, 1259

Auto

34.6 18%

Teleop

111.2 56%

Endgame

51.1 26%

Strengths

· 1259 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5903, 9760, 3381

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5903, 9760, 3381

Auto

12.0 25%

Teleop

30.7 63%

Endgame

6.0 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score201.7pts

Blue projected score47.3pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 154.4
Score range: 25–224
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 324 vs event baseline 120.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.4Season APEX176.3

34.6Auto12

111.2Teleop30.7

51.1Endgame6

70Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	15
teleop	164	18
endgame	37	37
foul	0	0
total	254	70

Result

Final score

254 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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