Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

19.91 – 70.32

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 53.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 163.8 ±13.3

1091Oriole Assault

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 26.26Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX -6.67Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5019Gearbox Heroes

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 0.32Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 370.7 ±10.5

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX -24.44Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 69.25Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5148New Berlin Blitz

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 25.51Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1091, 6643, 5019

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1091, 6643, 5019

Auto

-1.4 0%

Teleop

14.3 57%

Endgame

12.4 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10553, 5826, 5148

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10553, 5826, 5148

Auto

34.9 57%

Teleop

22.7 37%

Endgame

3.9 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.08 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score19.9pts

Blue projected score70.3pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.4
Score range: -2–92
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 121.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

163.8Season APEX370.7

-1.4Auto34.9

14.3Teleop22.7

12.4Endgame3.9

102Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	43
teleop	12	64
endgame	24	30
foul	0	15
total	46	152

Result

Final score

46 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 53.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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