Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

269.73 – 29.16

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

346 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 98.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 591.6 ±9.3

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 80.05Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 129.22Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 60.46Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367 ±11.7

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX -24.75Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7103Robo Remedy @ Manitowoc Lutheran High School

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 26.51Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 27.4Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2194, 3197, 93

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2194, 3197, 93

Auto

53.0 20%

Teleop

138.2 52%

Endgame

72.2 27%

Strengths

· 3197 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5096, 7103, 1792

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.2 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5096, 7103, 1792

Auto

29.5 100%

Teleop

8.6 30%

Endgame

-9.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.5 · Blue 0.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score269.7pts

Blue projected score29.2pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 240.6
Score range: 8–291
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 496 vs event baseline 116.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

591.6Season APEX367

53Auto29.5

138.2Teleop8.6

72.2Endgame-9.1

26Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	46
teleop	199	74
endgame	85	30
foul	0	0
total	346	150

Result

Final score

346 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 98.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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