Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

70.03 – 58.48

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

104 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 28.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.3 ±11.7

9578Player One

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX -6.37Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 21.45Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 54.95Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 177.3 ±13.3

1091Oriole Assault

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 59.46Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4054The Aeronauts

Season APEX 78.4Event APEX 22.11Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX -23.09Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9578, 10909, 93

/ 100 compat

Projected

70 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9578, 10909, 93

Auto

9.9 14%

Teleop

51.1 72%

Endgame

10.3 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1091, 4054, 5096

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1091, 4054, 5096

Auto

5.3 9%

Teleop

35.5 58%

Endgame

20.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70pts

Blue projected score58.5pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.6
Score range: 38–90
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 139 vs event baseline 113.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251.3Season APEX177.3

9.9Auto5.3

51.1Teleop35.5

10.3Endgame20.2

115Consistency173

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	13
teleop	46	1
endgame	33	21
foul	0	0
total	104	35

Result

Final score

104 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 28.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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