Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

107.75 – 68.51

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

111 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 6.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 367.4 ±11.7

7103Robo Remedy @ Manitowoc Lutheran High School

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 28.56Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1716Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 12.04Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 67.15Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.4 ±11.6

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 0.44Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5148New Berlin Blitz

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 34.05Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9760Cristo Rey Jesuit Trailblazers

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 34.02Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7103, 1716, 2194

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7103, 1716, 2194

Auto

45.4 41%

Teleop

57.6 52%

Endgame

7.4 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2826, 5148, 9760

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2826, 5148, 9760

Auto

7.9 13%

Teleop

33.3 53%

Endgame

21.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score107.8pts

Blue projected score68.5pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.2
Score range: 48–129
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 169 vs event baseline 115.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

367.4Season APEX344.4

45.4Auto7.9

57.6Teleop33.3

7.4Endgame21.4

137Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	16
teleop	27	35
endgame	18	7
foul	10	0
total	111	58

Result

Final score

111 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 6.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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