Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.42 – 73.13

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.5 ±12.8

8700W.I.R.E.D

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX -2.08Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10287Kingdom Prep RC

Season APEX 48.9Event APEX 22.44Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 45.06Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 163.9 ±14.1

8803MechaMarines

Season APEX 41.7Event APEX 43.94Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 33.48Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11258Honey Badgers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX -4.29Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8700, 10287, 706

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8700, 10287, 706

Auto

20.6 34%

Teleop

23.9 39%

Endgame

16.9 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8803, 10264, 11258

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8803, 10264, 11258

Auto

9.9 16%

Teleop

26.5 42%

Endgame

27.4 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score65.4pts

Blue projected score73.1pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.7
Score range: 44–94
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 192 vs event baseline 115.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.5Season APEX163.9

20.6Auto9.9

23.9Teleop26.5

16.9Endgame27.4

173Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	19
teleop	16	72
endgame	9	39
foul	5	0
total	62	130

Result

Final score

62 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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