Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

153.46 – 81.11

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

381 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 121.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 429.5 ±11.2

11139Blackhawk Robotics #11139

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 3.15Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 45.9Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 104.41Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.9 ±12.2

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 68.4Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5903ThorBots

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 0.12Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9425Intra Milwaukee

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 12.59Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11139, 5826, 1306

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11139, 5826, 1306

Auto

25.1 18%

Teleop

104.0 73%

Endgame

14.3 10%

Strengths

· 1306 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6223, 5903, 9425

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6223, 5903, 9425

Auto

13.7 17%

Teleop

47.5 58%

Endgame

20.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.01 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score153.5pts

Blue projected score81.1pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.4
Score range: 61–173
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 477 vs event baseline 108.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

429.5Season APEX226.9

25.1Auto13.7

104Teleop47.5

14.3Endgame20.4

111Consistency171

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	25
teleop	230	29
endgame	72	32
foul	0	10
total	381	96

Result

Final score

381 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 121.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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