Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.17 – 224.51

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

135 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 56.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 348.1 ±11.2

5019Gearbox Heroes

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 21.36Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 36.16Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 12.65Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 569.2 ±9.3

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 80.48Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 107.52Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 36.51Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5019, 171, 10553

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5019, 171, 10553

Auto

13.4 21%

Teleop

33.6 51%

Endgame

18.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1792, 1259, 8744

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1792, 1259, 8744

Auto

50.7 23%

Teleop

128.7 59%

Endgame

40.2 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70.2pts

Blue projected score224.5pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -154.3
Score range: 48–247
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 407 vs event baseline 120.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

348.1Season APEX569.2

13.4Auto50.7

33.6Teleop128.7

18.3Endgame40.2

0Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	44
teleop	63	125
endgame	50	103
foul	0	0
total	135	272

Result

Final score

135 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 56.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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