Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

186.11 – 116.99

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

152 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 320.8 ±10.4

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 76.56Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 47.1Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 62.45Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 352.5 ±12.4

3381Droid Rage

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 21.23Rank 38Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 84.08Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8700W.I.R.E.D

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 11.68Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5826, 8744, 10264

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5826, 8744, 10264

Auto

37.6 21%

Teleop

93.0 53%

Endgame

46.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3381, 1792, 8700

/ 100 compat

Projected

117 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3381, 1792, 8700

Auto

31.4 28%

Teleop

47.0 42%

Endgame

33.7 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score186.1pts

Blue projected score117pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.1
Score range: 92–211
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 138.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

320.8Season APEX352.5

37.6Auto31.4

93Teleop47

46.2Endgame33.7

25Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	37
teleop	52	7
endgame	39	11
foul	30	5
total	152	60

Result

Final score

152 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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