Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

42.6 – 100.43

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

125 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 84 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218 ±12.8

9578Player One

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX -5.82Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6421WarriorBots

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 33.13Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3381Droid Rage

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 15.29Rank 38Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 358.1 ±10.5

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 61.91Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1091Oriole Assault

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 39.19Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2830Riverside RoboTigers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX -0.67Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9578, 6421, 3381

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9578, 6421, 3381

Auto

10.9 27%

Teleop

18.1 45%

Endgame

11.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2194, 1091, 2830

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2194, 1091, 2830

Auto

41.7 43%

Teleop

36.3 38%

Endgame

18.2 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score42.6pts

Blue projected score100.4pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.8
Score range: 24–119
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 311 vs event baseline 106.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218Season APEX358.1

10.9Auto41.7

18.1Teleop36.3

11.4Endgame18.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	46
teleop	76	101
endgame	40	39
foul	0	0
total	125	186

Result

Final score

125 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 84 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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