Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

42.15 – 65.3

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 8.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.7 ±12.8

8700W.I.R.E.D

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 8.63Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 25.03Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1716Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 8.49Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 237.8 ±12.8

4054The Aeronauts

Season APEX 78.4Event APEX 15.5Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 2.3Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 47.5Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8700, 2826, 1716

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8700, 2826, 1716

Auto

12.4 27%

Teleop

22.8 50%

Endgame

10.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4054, 6643, 706

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4054, 6643, 706

Auto

13.8 23%

Teleop

30.1 49%

Endgame

17.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score42.2pts

Blue projected score65.3pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.1
Score range: 22–85
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 117 vs event baseline 108.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.7Season APEX237.8

12.4Auto13.8

22.8Teleop30.1

10.2Endgame17.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	12
teleop	14	34
endgame	6	33
foul	0	0
total	38	79

Result

Final score

38 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 8.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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