Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

149.39 – 180.05

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

82 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 56.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 182.6 ±13.6

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 22.85Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 70.37Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8803MechaMarines

Season APEX 41.7Event APEX 56.17Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 556.6 ±9.3

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 62Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 20.43Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 97.62Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6318, 171, 8803

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6318, 171, 8803

Auto

30.1 21%

Teleop

79.9 56%

Endgame

32.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 93, 10553, 1306

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 93, 10553, 1306

Auto

24.6 14%

Teleop

126.4 70%

Endgame

30.2 17%

Strengths

· 1306 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score149.4pts

Blue projected score180.1pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.7
Score range: 131–198
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 101.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

182.6Season APEX556.6

30.1Auto24.6

79.9Teleop126.4

32.3Endgame30.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	41
teleop	32	162
endgame	32	22
foul	5	0
total	82	225

Result

Final score

82 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 56.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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