Qualification · Qualification 12
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
83.62 – 13.85
70%30%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
71 – 23
Prediction correct · off by 10.9 points
Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 364.5 ±12.4
Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 64.27Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 7.84Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 11.51Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 184.8 ±12.8
Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 11.51Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 53.1Event APEX -0.8Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 3.14Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2194, 9578, 5019
55
/ 100 compatProjected
83.6 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 2194, 9578, 5019
Auto
24.3 31%
Teleop
47.9 61%
Endgame
5.8 7%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 40%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6732, 11139, 8700
13
/ 100 compatProjected
13.9 pts
~0.9 RP (district)
Teams: 6732, 11139, 8700
Auto
9.2 97%
Teleop
-3.5 0%
Endgame
3.8 40%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 40%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 0.95
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score83.6pts
Blue projected score13.9pts
Red win probability70%
Event bonus sample182alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 40%, blue 28%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 69.8
- Score range
- -5–103
- Upset likelihood
- 30%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
364.5Season APEX184.8
24.3Auto9.2
47.9Teleop-3.5
5.8Endgame3.8
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 48 | 12 |
| teleop | 16 | 5 |
| endgame | 2 | 1 |
| foul | 5 | 5 |
| total | 71 | 23 |
Result
Final score
71 – 23
Prediction correct · off by 10.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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