Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
78.94 – 102.52
43%57%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
290 – 86
Prediction missed · off by 113.8 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 564.1 ±9.3
Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 22.34Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 36.86Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 19.74Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 396 ±11.7
Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 36.86Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 78.4Event APEX 19.74Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 45.92Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1259, 1306, 171
57
/ 100 compatProjected
78.9 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 1259, 1306, 171
Auto
16.3 22%
Teleop
48.6 65%
Endgame
10.0 13%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2826, 4054, 6421
63
/ 100 compatProjected
102.5 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 2826, 4054, 6421
Auto
4.7 5%
Teleop
63.5 66%
Endgame
28.5 29%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.52
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score78.9pts
Blue projected score102.5pts
Red win probability43%
Event bonus sample182alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 55%, blue 34%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -23.6
- Score range
- 61–121
- Upset likelihood
- 43%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
564.1Season APEX396
16.3Auto4.7
48.6Teleop63.5
10Endgame28.5
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 33 | 7 |
| teleop | 205 | 45 |
| endgame | 52 | 34 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 290 | 86 |
Result
Final score
290 – 86
Prediction missed · off by 113.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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