Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

77.73 – 73.41

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 30.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 295.4 ±11.7

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 36.55Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11258Honey Badgers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 15.19Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9760Cristo Rey Jesuit Trailblazers

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 25.99Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212 ±11.7

2830Riverside RoboTigers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 29.66Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8802Milwaukee United

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 1.94Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 41.81Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10553, 11258, 9760

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10553, 11258, 9760

Auto

21.4 28%

Teleop

39.7 52%

Endgame

15.1 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2830, 8802, 706

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2830, 8802, 706

Auto

19.5 27%

Teleop

37.0 52%

Endgame

14.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77.7pts

Blue projected score73.4pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.3
Score range: 48–103
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 91 vs event baseline 138.1.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

295.4Season APEX212

21.4Auto19.5

39.7Teleop37

15.1Endgame14.9

78Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	19
teleop	13	24
endgame	0	7
foul	5	5
total	36	55

Result

Final score

36 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 30.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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