Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

84.94 – 76.12

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

88 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 5.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 489.7 ±11.2

1721Tidal Force

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 43.63Rank 5Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 24.21Rank 21Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 17.1Rank 19Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.6 ±10.4

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 14.99Rank 22Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 22.07Rank 8Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 39.06Rank 12Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1721, 5687, 151

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.9 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1721, 5687, 151

Auto

5.9 7%

Teleop

49.1 61%

Endgame

25.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1119, 2423, 5422

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.1 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1119, 2423, 5422

Auto

11.9 17%

Teleop

43.0 60%

Endgame

16.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score84.9pts

Blue projected score76.1pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.8
Score range: 59–102
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 157 vs event baseline 94.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

489.7Season APEX401.6

5.9Auto11.9

49.1Teleop43

25.9Endgame16.3

144Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	15
teleop	51	41
endgame	6	8
foul	20	5
total	88	69

Result

Final score

88 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 5.1 pts

Match videos

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