Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

152.45 – 120.96

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

260 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 90.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 650.4 ±7.5

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 72.71Rank 15Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 57.67Rank 2Record 3-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 22.07Rank 23Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 578.9 ±8.8

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 47.78Rank 9Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 23.31Rank 24Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 49.87Rank 3Record 3-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1768, 4909, 9644

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.5 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1768, 4909, 9644

Auto

21.9 15%

Teleop

109.9 73%

Endgame

17.9 12%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 190, 1735, 8724

/ 100 compat

Projected

121 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 190, 1735, 8724

Auto

27.6 24%

Teleop

62.3 53%

Endgame

27.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score152.5pts

Blue projected score121pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.5
Score range: 104–169
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 308 vs event baseline 91.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

650.4Season APEX578.9

21.9Auto27.6

109.9Teleop62.3

17.9Endgame27.5

20Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	22
teleop	152	19
endgame	53	7
foul	5	0
total	260	48

Result

Final score

260 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 90.3 pts

Match videos

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