Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

163.87 – 96.56

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

217 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 38.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 660.8 ±9.9

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 11.39Rank 20Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 116.3Rank 1Record 3-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 36.18Rank 6Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 489.7 ±11.2

1721Tidal Force

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 44.05Rank 5Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 30.13Rank 21Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 22.38Rank 19Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2342, 6328, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.9 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2342, 6328, 2877

Auto

35.4 21%

Teleop

82.4 50%

Endgame

48.4 29%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1721, 5687, 151

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.6 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1721, 5687, 151

Auto

6.0 7%

Teleop

54.1 60%

Endgame

29.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.64 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score163.9pts

Blue projected score96.6pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.3
Score range: 81–180
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 290 vs event baseline 89.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

660.8Season APEX489.7

35.4Auto6

82.4Teleop54.1

48.4Endgame29.9

52Consistency135

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	7
teleop	134	46
endgame	43	20
foul	5	0
total	217	73

Result

Final score

217 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 38.3 pts

Match videos

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