Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

49 – 48.46

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

126 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 47.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 401.6 ±10.4

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX -4.47Rank 22Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 17.74Rank 8Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 35.73Rank 12Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 520.2 ±9.8

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 23.96Rank 11Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 16.04Rank 7Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 8.46Rank 18Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1119, 2423, 5422

/ 100 compat

Projected

49 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1119, 2423, 5422

Auto

11.7 27%

Teleop

22.3 52%

Endgame

9.0 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1153, 1073, 4041

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.5 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1153, 1073, 4041

Auto

0.5 1%

Teleop

34.3 71%

Endgame

13.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score49pts

Blue projected score48.5pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.5
Score range: 32–65
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 192 vs event baseline 88.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

401.6Season APEX520.2

11.7Auto0.5

22.3Teleop34.3

9Endgame13.3

116Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	5
teleop	79	28
endgame	28	3
foul	5	30
total	126	66

Result

Final score

126 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 47.3 pts

Match videos

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