Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

62.78 – 60.97

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

139 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 45.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 710 ±9.3

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 33.11Rank 16Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 9.48Rank 10Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 20.19Rank 14Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 637.7 ±9.8

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 24.95Rank 4Record 3-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 23.79Rank 13Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 12.23Rank 26Record 0-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 88, 78, 131

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.8 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 88, 78, 131

Auto

5.8 9%

Teleop

28.5 46%

Endgame

27.0 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2079, 5000, 1512

/ 100 compat

Projected

61 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2079, 5000, 1512

Auto

21.4 37%

Teleop

20.5 35%

Endgame

16.7 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score62.8pts

Blue projected score61pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 11%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.8
Score range: 45–79
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 186 vs event baseline 88.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

710Season APEX637.7

5.8Auto21.4

28.5Teleop20.5

27Endgame16.7

54Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	25
teleop	83	5
endgame	9	12
foul	0	5
total	139	47

Result

Final score

139 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 45.1 pts

Match videos

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