Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

119.37 – 55.3

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

129 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 9.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 578.9 ±8.8

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 53.14Rank 9Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 44.13Rank 3Record 3-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 22.1Rank 24Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 520.2 ±9.8

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 23.8Rank 11Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 23.69Rank 7Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 7.81Rank 18Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 190, 8724, 1735

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.4 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 190, 8724, 1735

Auto

23.3 21%

Teleop

62.8 57%

Endgame

24.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1153, 1073, 4041

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.3 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1153, 1073, 4041

Auto

-1.8 0%

Teleop

36.5 66%

Endgame

20.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.64 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score119.4pts

Blue projected score55.3pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.1
Score range: 39–135
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 175 vs event baseline 88.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

578.9Season APEX520.2

23.3Auto-1.8

62.8Teleop36.5

24.5Endgame20.5

25Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	4
teleop	67	35
endgame	32	7
foul	0	0
total	129	46

Result

Final score

129 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 9.5 pts

Match videos

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