Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.9 – 101.14

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 637.7 ±9.8

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 21.88Rank 4Record 3-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 21.66Rank 13Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 16.36Rank 26Record 0-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 489.7 ±11.2

1721Tidal Force

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 42.43Rank 5Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 32.12Rank 21Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 26.59Rank 19Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2079, 5000, 1512

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.9 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2079, 5000, 1512

Auto

22.0 36%

Teleop

28.4 46%

Endgame

10.8 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1721, 5687, 151

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.1 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1721, 5687, 151

Auto

11.8 12%

Teleop

53.6 55%

Endgame

31.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.89 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score59.9pts

Blue projected score101.1pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 11%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.2
Score range: 44–117
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 86.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

637.7Season APEX489.7

22Auto11.8

28.4Teleop53.6

10.8Endgame31.6

90Consistency139

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	8
teleop	13	61
endgame	23	28
foul	5	10
total	64	107

Result

Final score

64 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 5 pts

Match videos

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