Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

187.44 – 56.22

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

141 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 35.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 660.8 ±9.9

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 37.52Rank 6Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 125.21Rank 1Record 3-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 24.71Rank 20Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 710 ±9.3

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 37.59Rank 16Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 0.68Rank 10Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 17.95Rank 14Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2877, 6328, 2342

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.4 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2877, 6328, 2342

Auto

38.1 20%

Teleop

102.5 54%

Endgame

48.2 26%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 88, 78, 131

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.2 pts

~0.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 88, 78, 131

Auto

4.8 9%

Teleop

21.4 42%

Endgame

24.4 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.92 · Blue 0.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score187.4pts

Blue projected score56.2pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 131.2
Score range: 41–202
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 221 vs event baseline 84.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

660.8Season APEX710

38.1Auto4.8

102.5Teleop21.4

48.2Endgame24.4

48Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	8
teleop	62	41
endgame	45	31
foul	0	0
total	141	80

Result

Final score

141 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 35.1 pts

Match videos

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