Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

170.92 – 95.24

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

352 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 105.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 606.6 ±8.2

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 96.48Rank 15Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 73.24Rank 2Record 3-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 1.2Rank 17Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 489.7 ±11.2

1721Tidal Force

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 47.63Rank 5Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 27.89Rank 21Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 19.72Rank 19Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1768, 4909, 5962

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.9 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1768, 4909, 5962

Auto

31.4 20%

Teleop

102.2 64%

Endgame

26.7 17%

Strengths

· 1768 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1721, 5687, 151

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.2 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1721, 5687, 151

Auto

7.7 9%

Teleop

58.1 65%

Endgame

24.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.69 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score170.9pts

Blue projected score95.2pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.7
Score range: 77–189
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 478 vs event baseline 99.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

606.6Season APEX489.7

31.4Auto7.7

102.2Teleop58.1

26.7Endgame24.1

20Consistency130

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	3
teleop	197	75
endgame	82	43
foul	15	5
total	352	126

Result

Final score

352 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 105.9 pts

Match videos

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