Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

88.25 – 83.76

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 140

Prediction missed · off by 37 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 710 ±9.3

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 32.67Rank 16Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 23.49Rank 10Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 32.09Rank 14Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 489.7 ±11.2

1721Tidal Force

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 45.52Rank 5Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 22.74Rank 21Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 15.5Rank 19Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 88, 78, 131

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.3 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 88, 78, 131

Auto

23.5 29%

Teleop

39.7 49%

Endgame

17.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1721, 5687, 151

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.8 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1721, 5687, 151

Auto

6.8 9%

Teleop

49.6 64%

Endgame

20.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score88.3pts

Blue projected score83.8pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.5
Score range: 66–106
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 246 vs event baseline 98.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

710Season APEX489.7

23.5Auto6.8

39.7Teleop49.6

17.4Endgame20.6

55Consistency162

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	12
teleop	45	91
endgame	17	37
foul	5	0
total	106	140

Result

Final score

106 – 140

Prediction missed · off by 37 pts

Match videos

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