Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

187.29 – 193.24

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

271 – 243

Prediction missed · off by 66.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 660.8 ±9.9

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 25.72Rank 20Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 119.63Rank 1Record 3-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 41.94Rank 6Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 650.4 ±7.5

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 88.45Rank 15Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 69.89Rank 2Record 3-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 34.9Rank 23Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2342, 6328, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.3 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2342, 6328, 2877

Auto

35.9 19%

Teleop

102.6 55%

Endgame

48.9 26%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1768, 4909, 9644

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.2 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1768, 4909, 9644

Auto

31.6 17%

Teleop

127.4 67%

Endgame

31.9 17%

Strengths

· 1768 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score187.3pts

Blue projected score193.2pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6
Score range: 170–210
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 514 vs event baseline 92.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

660.8Season APEX650.4

35.9Auto31.6

102.6Teleop127.4

48.9Endgame31.9

38Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	31
teleop	159	102
endgame	61	40
foul	10	70
total	271	243

Result

Final score

271 – 243

Prediction missed · off by 66.7 pts

Match videos

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