Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

81.64 – 58.36

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

149 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 45.9 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 444.4 ±10.2

1721Tidal Force

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 23.14Rank 5Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 34.7Rank 3Record 3-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 23.8Rank 2Record 3-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 438 ±10.4

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 19.79Rank 17Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 11.73Rank 19Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 26.84Rank 10Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1721, 8724, 4909

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.6 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1721, 8724, 4909

Auto

16.8 21%

Teleop

48.3 60%

Endgame

15.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5962, 151, 78

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.4 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5962, 151, 78

Auto

2.6 5%

Teleop

54.2 100%

Endgame

-2.6 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score81.6pts

Blue projected score58.4pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.3
Score range: 44–96
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 183 vs event baseline 77.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

444.4Season APEX438

16.8Auto2.6

48.3Teleop54.2

15.3Endgame-2.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	5
teleop	95	13
endgame	18	16
foul	5	0
total	149	34

Result

Final score

149 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 45.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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