Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

4.78 – 33.71

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

24 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 11.3 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 543.4 ±9.3

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 7.18Rank 28Record 0-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3566Gone Fishin'

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX -7.54Rank 25Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 5.14Rank 23Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 526.7 ±9.8

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 5.14Rank 24Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 13.14Rank 22Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 15.43Rank 13Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5813, 3566, 9644

/ 100 compat

Projected

4.8 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5813, 3566, 9644

Auto

1.3 37%

Teleop

-0.4 0%

Endgame

2.6 74%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1735, 1119, 5000

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.7 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1735, 1119, 5000

Auto

5.4 17%

Teleop

20.0 62%

Endgame

6.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.95 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score4.8pts

Blue projected score33.7pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 9%, blue 10%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.9
Score range: -12–51
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 61 vs event baseline 92.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

543.4Season APEX526.7

1.3Auto5.4

-0.4Teleop20

2.6Endgame6.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	10
teleop	19	17
endgame	5	10
foul	0	0
total	24	37

Result

Final score

24 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 11.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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