Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

155.88 – 181.28

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

136 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 15.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 829.7 ±8.1

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 14.6Rank 7Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 30.16Rank 16Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 111.12Rank 15Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 686 ±9.3

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 17.77Rank 8Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 126.58Rank 1Record 3-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 36.93Rank 6Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1073, 88, 1768

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.9 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1073, 88, 1768

Auto

18.3 13%

Teleop

94.2 65%

Endgame

31.7 22%

Strengths

· 1768 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2423, 6328, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.3 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2423, 6328, 2877

Auto

28.6 16%

Teleop

101.6 57%

Endgame

48.8 27%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score155.9pts

Blue projected score181.3pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.4
Score range: 135–202
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 114.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

829.7Season APEX686

18.3Auto28.6

94.2Teleop101.6

31.7Endgame48.8

44Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	19
teleop	83	104
endgame	38	48
foul	5	0
total	136	171

Result

Final score

136 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 15.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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