Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.27 – 88.36

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

138 – 81

Prediction missed · off by 28.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 592.1 ±9.5

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 35.36Rank 3Record 3-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 16.54Rank 9Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 36.37Rank 20Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 499.1 ±11.2

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 12.35Rank 26Record 0-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1721Tidal Force

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 47.02Rank 5Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 28.99Rank 21Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8724, 190, 2342

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.3 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8724, 190, 2342

Auto

26.4 32%

Teleop

51.4 63%

Endgame

4.3 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1512, 1721, 5687

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.4 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1512, 1721, 5687

Auto

14.6 18%

Teleop

52.1 63%

Endgame

15.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score88.3pts

Blue projected score88.4pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 10%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.1
Score range: 67–109
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 219 vs event baseline 114.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

592.1Season APEX499.1

26.4Auto14.6

51.4Teleop52.1

4.3Endgame15.9

31Consistency179

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	5
teleop	77	54
endgame	17	22
foul	5	0
total	138	81

Result

Final score

138 – 81

Prediction missed · off by 28.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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