Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.82 – 82.1

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 21 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 392.3 ±10.4

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 16.18Rank 22Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 21.31Rank 11Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 22.33Rank 19Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 770.8 ±9.3

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 45.71Rank 14Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 14.47Rank 13Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 21.92Rank 4Record 3-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1119, 1153, 151

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.8 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1119, 1153, 151

Auto

8.4 17%

Teleop

23.4 47%

Endgame

18.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 131, 5000, 2079

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.1 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 131, 5000, 2079

Auto

23.0 31%

Teleop

27.5 37%

Endgame

24.7 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.03 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score59.8pts

Blue projected score82.1pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 10%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.3
Score range: 39–103
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 100 vs event baseline 114.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

392.3Season APEX770.8

8.4Auto23

23.4Teleop27.5

18.1Endgame24.7

93Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	16
teleop	31	25
endgame	7	13
foul	5	0
total	46	54

Result

Final score

46 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 21 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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