Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

149 – 29.37

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

119 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 451.6 ±9.4

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 93.75Rank 2Record 3-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 37.48Rank 12Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 17.77Rank 8Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 576.4 ±9.9

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 36.93Rank 6Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

811Wild Cards

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX -40.77Rank 27Record 0-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 33.21Rank 28Record 0-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4909, 5422, 2423

/ 100 compat

Projected

149 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4909, 5422, 2423

Auto

24.7 17%

Teleop

83.9 58%

Endgame

35.8 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2877, 811, 5813

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.4 pts

~0.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2877, 811, 5813

Auto

10.3 39%

Teleop

2.6 10%

Endgame

13.3 51%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.9 · Blue 0.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score149pts

Blue projected score29.4pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 13%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 119.6
Score range: 8–170
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 176 vs event baseline 114.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

451.6Season APEX576.4

24.7Auto10.3

83.9Teleop2.6

35.8Endgame13.3

69Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	11
teleop	76	14
endgame	27	27
foul	0	5
total	119	57

Result

Final score

119 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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