Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

154.47 – 42.69

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

155 – 18

Prediction correct · off by 12.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 736.9 ±9.3

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 126.58Rank 1Record 3-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 13.29Rank 10Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 14.6Rank 7Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 379.3 ±9.8

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 12.38Rank 23Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 19.26Rank 24Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 11.05Rank 18Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6328, 78, 1073

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.5 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6328, 78, 1073

Auto

8.4 6%

Teleop

102.4 69%

Endgame

37.7 25%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9644, 1735, 4041

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.7 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9644, 1735, 4041

Auto

8.8 23%

Teleop

12.0 32%

Endgame

16.7 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.93 · Blue 0.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score154.5pts

Blue projected score42.7pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 111.8
Score range: 22–175
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 173 vs event baseline 114.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

736.9Season APEX379.3

8.4Auto8.8

102.4Teleop12

37.7Endgame16.7

56Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	0
teleop	119	14
endgame	30	4
foul	0	0
total	155	18

Result

Final score

155 – 18

Prediction correct · off by 12.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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