Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

78.26 – 78.08

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 215

Prediction missed · off by 71.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 694.8 ±9.3

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 44.32Rank 6Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 23.06Rank 21Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 10.88Rank 17Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 577.4 ±9.8

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX -11.27Rank 4Record 3-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX -0.9Rank 24Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 90.25Rank 1Record 3-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2877, 5687, 5962

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.3 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2877, 5687, 5962

Auto

3.3 5%

Teleop

39.6 55%

Endgame

29.1 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2079, 1735, 6328

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.1 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2079, 1735, 6328

Auto

4.1 5%

Teleop

57.4 67%

Endgame

23.9 28%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score78.3pts

Blue projected score78.1pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 13%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.2
Score range: 64–92
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 300 vs event baseline 80.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

694.8Season APEX577.4

3.3Auto4.1

39.6Teleop57.4

29.1Endgame23.9

0Consistency145

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	25
teleop	34	99
endgame	7	91
foul	5	0
total	85	215

Result

Final score

85 – 215

Prediction missed · off by 71.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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