Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80.74 – 82.95

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 59.9 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 624 ±8.8

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 51.36Rank 9Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 11.06Rank 28Record 0-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 18.32Rank 22Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 568.4 ±9.8

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 19.78Rank 11Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX -0.79Rank 18Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 63.96Rank 1Record 3-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 190, 5813, 1119

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.7 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 190, 5813, 1119

Auto

12.8 17%

Teleop

55.3 74%

Endgame

7.1 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1153, 4041, 6328

/ 100 compat

Projected

83 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1153, 4041, 6328

Auto

2.4 3%

Teleop

68.0 82%

Endgame

12.3 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score80.7pts

Blue projected score83pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.2
Score range: 67–97
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 252 vs event baseline 77.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

624Season APEX568.4

12.8Auto2.4

55.3Teleop68

7.1Endgame12.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	32
teleop	10	73
endgame	20	82
foul	25	0
total	65	187

Result

Final score

65 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 59.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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