Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

71.52 – 38.95

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 79

Prediction missed · off by 31.8 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 512.5 ±10

811Wild Cards

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 4.19Rank 27Record 0-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 51.9Rank 15Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 15.43Rank 26Record 0-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 756 ±8.7

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 15.43Rank 21Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 9.96Rank 23Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 13.56Rank 14Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 811, 1768, 1512

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.5 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 811, 1768, 1512

Auto

6.1 9%

Teleop

43.4 65%

Endgame

17.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5687, 9644, 131

/ 100 compat

Projected

39 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5687, 9644, 131

Auto

3.8 10%

Teleop

27.3 70%

Endgame

8.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.36 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score71.5pts

Blue projected score39pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 6%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.6
Score range: 25–86
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 127 vs event baseline 79.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

512.5Season APEX756

6.1Auto3.8

43.4Teleop27.3

17Endgame8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	3
teleop	34	24
endgame	0	32
foul	0	20
total	48	79

Result

Final score

48 – 79

Prediction missed · off by 31.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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