Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

5.2 – 159.08

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

1 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 15.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 433.2 ±9.8

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 30.16Rank 16Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

501The PowerKnights

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX -13.46Rank 29Record 0-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3566Gone Fishin'

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX -11.5Rank 25Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 696.3 ±8.2

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 111.12Rank 15Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 31.42Rank 17Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 16.54Rank 9Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 88, 501, 3566

/ 100 compat

Projected

5.2 pts

~0.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 88, 501, 3566

Auto

1.8 24%

Teleop

3.0 39%

Endgame

2.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1768, 5962, 190

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.1 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1768, 5962, 190

Auto

30.0 20%

Teleop

95.0 64%

Endgame

24.5 16%

Strengths

· 1768 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.43 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score5.2pts

Blue projected score159.1pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 14%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -153.9
Score range: -16–180
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 133 vs event baseline 114.4.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

433.2Season APEX696.3

1.8Auto30

3Teleop95

2.8Endgame24.5

166Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	19
teleop	0	99
endgame	1	4
foul	0	10
total	1	132

Result

Final score

1 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 15.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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