Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

196.06 – 217.64

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

223 – 215

Prediction missed · off by 14.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 660.8 ±9.9

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 34.49Rank 20Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 125.69Rank 1Record 3-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 35.88Rank 6Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 650.4 ±7.5

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 12.75Rank 23Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 111.11Rank 15Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 93.78Rank 2Record 3-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2342, 6328, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.1 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2342, 6328, 2877

Auto

35.7 18%

Teleop

110.5 57%

Endgame

46.8 24%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9644, 1768, 4909

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.6 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9644, 1768, 4909

Auto

32.9 17%

Teleop

126.2 64%

Endgame

38.8 20%

Strengths

· 1768 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score196.1pts

Blue projected score217.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.6
Score range: 176–238
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 438 vs event baseline 110.9.

← Previous

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

660.8Season APEX650.4

35.7Auto32.9

110.5Teleop126.2

46.8Endgame38.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	36
teleop	120	68
endgame	50	81
foul	15	30
total	223	215

Result

Final score

223 – 215

Prediction missed · off by 14.8 pts

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