Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

207.8 – 248.38

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

268 – 192

Prediction missed · off by 58.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 660.8 ±9.9

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 40.81Rank 20Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 128.93Rank 1Record 3-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 38.06Rank 6Record 2-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 606.6 ±8.2

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 114.29Rank 15Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 97.82Rank 2Record 3-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 36.27Rank 17Record 1-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2342, 6328, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.8 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2342, 6328, 2877

Auto

37.1 18%

Teleop

115.8 57%

Endgame

51.7 25%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1768, 4909, 5962

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.4 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1768, 4909, 5962

Auto

42.9 18%

Teleop

142.8 61%

Endgame

50.2 21%

Strengths

· 1768 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score207.8pts

Blue projected score248.4pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.6
Score range: 189–267
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 460 vs event baseline 104.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

660.8Season APEX606.6

37.1Auto42.9

115.8Teleop142.8

51.7Endgame50.2

22Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	33
teleop	146	108
endgame	72	46
foul	5	5
total	268	192

Result

Final score

268 – 192

Prediction missed · off by 58.3 pts

Match videos

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