Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
195.68 – 172.21
57%43%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
264 – 156
Prediction correct · off by 42.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 397.3 ±9.5
Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 20.83Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 76.03Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 98.82Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.7 ±12.1
Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 43.97Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 95.5Event APEX 67.69Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 75.9Event APEX 60.55Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3712, 2811, 9450
65
/ 100 compatProjected
195.7 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 3712, 2811, 9450
Auto
22.8 12%
Teleop
115.3 60%
Endgame
53.9 28%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 50%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6443, 2147, 4513
61
/ 100 compatProjected
172.2 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 6443, 2147, 4513
Auto
21.8 13%
Teleop
107.0 63%
Endgame
41.9 25%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 50%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.54
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score195.7pts
Blue projected score172.2pts
Red win probability57%
Event bonus sample138alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 50%, blue 64%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 23.5
- Score range
- 139–229
- Upset likelihood
- 43%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
397.3Season APEX227.7
22.8Auto21.8
115.3Teleop107
53.9Endgame41.9
71Consistency88
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 69 | 34 |
| teleop | 116 | 75 |
| endgame | 79 | 42 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 264 | 156 |
Result
Final score
264 – 156
Prediction correct · off by 42.3 pts
Match videos
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