Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

172.08 – 126.24

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

175 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.7 ±12.1

6443AEMBOT

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 43.91Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2147CHUCK

Season APEX 95.5Event APEX 67.75Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4513Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 75.9Event APEX 60.42Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 333.7 ±11

4692Metal Mallards

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 30.88Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1595The Dragons

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 29.49Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 65.87Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6443, 2147, 4513

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6443, 2147, 4513

Auto

19.5 11%

Teleop

105.1 62%

Endgame

45.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4692, 1595, 4125

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4692, 1595, 4125

Auto

16.1 13%

Teleop

64.3 53%

Endgame

40.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score172.1pts

Blue projected score126.2pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.8
Score range: 93–205
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 256 vs event baseline 181.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.7Season APEX333.7

19.5Auto16.1

105.1Teleop64.3

45.7Endgame40

79Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	19
teleop	115	34
endgame	24	28
foul	0	0
total	175	81

Result

Final score

175 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 pts

Match videos

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