Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

126.43 – 165.98

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 30.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 212.9 ±11.6

5920VIKotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 42.51Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4131Iron Patriots

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 35.77Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4980Canine Crusaders

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 48.15Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249.5 ±12.2

10423CB Tech

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 64.26Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8532Classified

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 58.72Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4061SciBorgs

Season APEX 99.8Event APEX 43Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5920, 4131, 4980

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5920, 4131, 4980

Auto

17.0 14%

Teleop

71.7 58%

Endgame

35.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10423, 8532, 4061

/ 100 compat

Projected

166 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10423, 8532, 4061

Auto

35.6 22%

Teleop

81.4 50%

Endgame

47.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126.4pts

Blue projected score166pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.5
Score range: 93–199
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 271 vs event baseline 182.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

212.9Season APEX249.5

17Auto35.6

71.7Teleop81.4

35.7Endgame47.1

77Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	55
teleop	48	85
endgame	17	41
foul	0	5
total	85	186

Result

Final score

85 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 30.7 pts

Match videos

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