Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

221.81 – 155.71

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

286 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 71.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 302.8 ±11

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 104.15Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9613Lion's Byte

Season APEX 23.2Event APEX 16.56Rank 27Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3218Panther Robotics

Season APEX 133.3Event APEX 101.1Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.7 ±12.1

6443AEMBOT

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 38.2Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2147CHUCK

Season APEX 95.5Event APEX 62.06Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4513Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 75.9Event APEX 55.45Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 753, 9613, 3218

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 753, 9613, 3218

Auto

35.3 16%

Teleop

130.5 60%

Endgame

51.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6443, 2147, 4513

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6443, 2147, 4513

Auto

16.6 11%

Teleop

92.9 61%

Endgame

43.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score221.8pts

Blue projected score155.7pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 66.1
Score range: 123–255
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 521 vs event baseline 181.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

302.8Season APEX227.7

35.3Auto16.6

130.5Teleop92.9

51.1Endgame43.9

15Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	34
teleop	169	155
endgame	78	46
foul	5	0
total	286	235

Result

Final score

286 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 71.7 pts

Match videos

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