Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

435.97 – 131.61

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

248 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 109.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 629.7 ±9.5

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 210.69Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4060Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX 17.62Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 207.66Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.9 ±11.6

5920VIKotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 42.78Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4131Iron Patriots

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 37.07Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4980Canine Crusaders

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 51.76Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9023, 4060, 5468

/ 100 compat

Projected

436 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9023, 4060, 5468

Auto

73.3 17%

Teleop

242.5 56%

Endgame

114.3 27%

Strengths

· 9023 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5920, 4131, 4980

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5920, 4131, 4980

Auto

17.3 13%

Teleop

76.4 58%

Endgame

37.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.67 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score436pts

Blue projected score131.6pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 304.4
Score range: 99–469
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 348 vs event baseline 181.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

629.7Season APEX212.9

73.3Auto17.3

242.5Teleop76.4

114.3Endgame37.8

72Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	19
teleop	136	53
endgame	46	18
foul	5	10
total	248	100

Result

Final score

248 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 109.8 pts

Match videos

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