Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

185.69 – 204.33

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 294

Prediction correct · off by 95.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.1 ±11

2926Robo Sparks

Season APEX 120Event APEX 78.62Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10416Radical Raccoons

Season APEX 142.3Event APEX 77.65Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6845River Bots

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 29.42Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 397.3 ±9.5

3712RoboCats

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 23.86Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 79.17Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 101.3Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2926, 10416, 6845

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2926, 10416, 6845

Auto

21.6 12%

Teleop

106.6 58%

Endgame

55.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3712, 2811, 9450

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3712, 2811, 9450

Auto

29.7 15%

Teleop

115.3 57%

Endgame

56.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score185.7pts

Blue projected score204.3pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.6
Score range: 152–238
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 379 vs event baseline 186.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300.1Season APEX397.3

21.6Auto29.7

106.6Teleop115.3

55.5Endgame56.3

46Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	43
teleop	28	183
endgame	17	48
foul	15	20
total	85	294

Result

Final score

85 – 294

Prediction correct · off by 95.2 pts

Match videos

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