Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

389.06 – 237.14

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

362 – 333

Prediction correct · off by 61.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 629.7 ±9.5

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 196.08Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4060Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX 1.9Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 191.08Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 302.8 ±11

3218Panther Robotics

Season APEX 133.3Event APEX 105.32Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 110.42Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9613Lion's Byte

Season APEX 23.2Event APEX 21.4Rank 27Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9023, 4060, 5468

/ 100 compat

Projected

389.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9023, 4060, 5468

Auto

68.9 18%

Teleop

218.4 57%

Endgame

95.2 25%

Strengths

· 9023 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3218, 753, 9613

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3218, 753, 9613

Auto

38.0 16%

Teleop

136.1 58%

Endgame

58.8 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score389.1pts

Blue projected score237.1pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 151.9
Score range: 204–422
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 695 vs event baseline 183.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

629.7Season APEX302.8

68.9Auto38

218.4Teleop136.1

95.2Endgame58.8

53Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	25
teleop	191	175
endgame	101	133
foul	15	0
total	362	333

Result

Final score

362 – 333

Prediction correct · off by 61.5 pts

Match videos

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